Monday, 25 November 2013

More profit

Quite a succesful day again today. More profit and the majority of it coming from the lays again.

I'll keep it short tonight as I've got a busy evening in store.

Day 5 +£17.50
Bank £270.21
Total Profit +£20.21


Sunday, 24 November 2013

Out of the office

This morning I just loaded the bot with the backs and lays and let it do it's stuff. I was watching my lad play football which couldn't have gone any better really. They won 3-0 and he bagged the perfect hat trick with the header, left foot, right foot combo. A proud day indeed. When I returned I ended up doing a bit of housework and sorting out a few things on the home front so for the first time since I went live with the bot I didn't have a clue what was going on. So it was a pleasant surprise to see the account back over the original starting bank.

Day 4 +£19.52
Bank £252.71
Total Profit +£2.71

A much steadier day today with all the profit coming from the 3 lays. I'll take the steady small profits every day of the week, literally!


Saturday, 23 November 2013

Quiet day

Not many bets today and a small loss on the day of 3.2 points which equates to £32. This leaves the bank on £233.19 and at a small loss of £17 since starting on the 21st of November. What has surprised me slightly is the big up and downs with this system. From my research the majority of days were up or down only a point or two each day but in only 3 days live trading I've had a 5.3 point loss followed by a 6.8 gain (I was out a bit on the blog yesterday), and a 3.2 loss today. Not the small margins I was hoping for although if the general trend continues to be upwards then it doesn't really matter as long as the bank is not in too much trouble. If these erratic results continue I may have to revisit the bet to bank size ratio and give myself a bit more breathing space.

That's another day under the belt and things are going OK. I expect the bank to be around the £270 mark by the end of the month and then around the £350 mark by the end of December. This is the start of a long road so I can't get too happy with winning days or down with losing days, just going to keep at it.

I've purchased the boxing tonight so I'm going to settle down and watch it now, should be a decent scrap. My money is on Froch in 5 rounds although only having a £1 on.


Friday, 22 November 2013

Getting it right

The hardest decision I have had to make with this new venture is what size bank to start with and what percent of the bank to use for each bet. Over six months of data my longest losing run was 16 which was taken over 700 individual bets so I figured starting with a bank of £250 and using £10 a point was reasonably safe whilst at the same time utilising the bank. There is no point having a bank of £250 and then only staking a tiny percent on each selection or you are never going to make any money. There has to be an element of risk in this business.

The results of my research showed 50 points profit for backing and 70 points profit for laying which is 120 points over a 6 month period, so an average of 20 points a month.

Here is the predicted future profit based on making only 10 points a month, starting with a £200 bank, staking 5% of the bank (£10 in month 1) on each selection.

Starting bank £200
Month 1 £300
Month 2 £450
Month 3 £675
Month 4 £1012
Month 5 £1518
Month 6 £2277
Month 7 £3415
Month 8 £5122
Month 9 £7683
Month 10 £11524
Month 11 £17286
Month 12 £25929

At this point you could be staking £1296 a point and if you are still clearing 10 points a month you would be making £12960 a month or £155k a year. Not bad from a £200 starting bank in one year.

Now this is probably an unrealistic goal but if its only 5 points a month then it will still build up to a decent amount and a regular monthly income.

On to today's results and I'm happy to tell you they are much better than yesterdays. 7 out of the 8 back bets won and 2 out of the 4 lays got beat for a nice 7.3 points profit or in monetary terms a nice £73. I had one slight mishap where there was a lay but when the bot put the bet into the market it wasn't matched and of course the horse went on to get beat so a point missed but a lesson learnt. I've now programmed the bot to fire both back and lay bets 2 ticks below the actual price which will hopefully guarantee I'll get matched on all bets in the future. I may have to go a tick or two more but only by live testing will I find out what works.

My immediate goal is to try get the bank up to £350 by the end of December which will be the predicted 10 points.

Day 2 +£73
Bank £265.19
Total profit +£15.19

Good birthday yesterday followed by a good days profit today, looking forward to tomorrow.


Thursday, 21 November 2013

A Great Day, well, sort of.

Today was my 41st birthday and I've had a fantastic day. It started with bacon sarnies, a walk on the beach with the wife and dog, betting, a superb Italian meal, then ending with a few pints of Cockahoop ale in my local. Does it get much better than that?

The answer is yes because day 1 of the betting was garbage. The backs were awful and all but one got beat and all the lays sprouted wings and won. I was half expecting a bit of a bad start as the past month has been fantastic in terms of points profit. It was up over 20 points leading up to my starting today so a bit of a drop was only to be expected.

I started with a kitty of £250 today and lost 5.3 points at £10 a point, so a loss of £53.

Bank is now at £197. I'm very confident that the months ahead will prove fruitful but only time will tell. A big shout out to Dean, thanks for your kind message yesterday mate, I am still following your blog with interest as you battle with the emotional roller coaster that is trading. You do seem to have the mental aptitude to beat it though and I have every faith in you. Keep up the good work.

Looking forward to day 2,


P.S.Tomorrow I'll put up my 12 month projected profit forecast which will raise a few eyebrows I'm sure. Until then, good night.

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

Succesful testing over

The past few days have been spent both fine tuning the bot and working 12 hour shifts. They are still my motivation to get this up and running and hopefully be able to change my job. Not a clue what I would do but it would be between normal working hours and not silly o clock which is my current working procedure.

So tomorrow is a big day. Not only do I fire up the bot with a £200 bank backing and laying to £10 a point, or 5%, but it's also my birthday. I'm excited for both to be honest and hoping that this will be the start of something great.

Looking forward to it!


Saturday, 16 November 2013

I'm Back!

Just had a quick look at my last post and was amazed to see it was almost 3 months ago, I really can't believe how quick the time has gone.

Since my last post I have not done any trading whatsoever. I've tried the pre race trading, the in play trading, and combinations including both, with back to lays and lay to backs in running but I have finally decided it's just not for me. I love the idea of it, I want to be good at it, but I just don't have the discipline to do it. It pains me to admit it but you can't get away from the truth.

At the end of September I completed my marathon after months of training and managed to just break my target of under 4 hours by a massive 20 seconds! It was under the target time and I'll take it. After that I haven't run as much but still get out a few times a week. I'm aiming to do a half marathon next summer.

So why am I back and what am I doing. Well I've always been keen on collating data and filling excel spreadsheets with lines of horse racing results trying to find profitable systems from the information. Over the past 3 months I've been trying out different methods and combining ratings from various sources and I think I've finally find something solid.

My findings were very encouraging so I've recently purchased a betting bot to automate these bets. After a couple of days testing the bot in simulation mode I was happy to try live testing which I started on Friday. I only put £20 in my betfair account and placed £2 backs and lays, but after 2 days the account stands at £44.50 so a pretty decent start. Going by past results I'm hoping to make between 10 and 20 points a month which doesn't sound that impressive but backing and laying to a percent of the bank could lead to a nice healthy profit over a considerable amount of time.

The plan going forward is a few more days testing at small stakes to iron out a few minor problems before putting a few hundred into the betfair account and having a proper go. Although the trading never worked out I'm hopeful this new venture will be a success. The discipline factor has been taken out of my hands as the selections are picked systematically, all I do is load the bot with the selections and it does the rest. I won't have any dilemmas regarding bet size or selections so I'm hoping this will be 'the one'.

I'll update things as and when I can,


Saturday, 24 August 2013

In Running drifters and steamers

As I eluded to earlier this week here are a few horses I think will trade either much lower or much higher in running. The idea is for an early move and to take a profit. On the Geeks Toy I generally try to be out before the yellow band in the race which is roughly the half way mark.

York steamers

2.05 Set The Trend             Traded from 11.5 at the off into 8.0 after 10 seconds, then into 6.6.
4.25 Baytown Kestrel         Traded from 30.0 into 14s, nice profit.
5.35 Equitania                     Off at 32, into 24.0, 23.0, in the yellow time bar, out to 30.0 for
                                            a few seconds then out to 200s and gone.

York drifters

5.00 Sam Sharp                 Traded at 18.5 at the off, then into 16.0 for a while, then out to 27.0 
                                           just before the yellow timebar ran out, then in to win.

Newmarket Steamers

4.30 Duke Cosimo             Traded from 5.7 into 4.4, had to wait a bit tho, well into the yellow.

Newmarket Drifters

5.05 Icebuster                     Non runner

Goodwood Steamers

4.40 Harris Tweed             Off at 3.25, straight into 3.00 after 30 seconds,
                                           then into 2.80 after  a minute 40 seconds, then
                                           dropped in to short odds on as it went onto win.

5.15 Croquembouche        Non runner

Goodwood drifters

2.55 Mabait                      Trading far too high at 95s, one to leave alone

Cartmel Steamer

5.20 Tinseltown                Dicey start going from 3.4 straight out to 4.1 after the off
                                          then back into 3.30, in the yellow bar came into 2.8 and
                                          shorter before going right out.

That's all for this afternoon. As you can see it's very selective but it is based on each horses running style compared to the style of the rest of the field. Hopefully there will be some decent moves. I'll update results this afternoon as we go.

Update; I traded these in training mode on the Geeks Toy this afternoon. My back and lay liability was set to £200 so nothing spectacular, and I managed to make a profit of £112. It just goes to show with a very selective process, discipline, and a decent bank, you can make money backing and laying pre race and trading out in running. The running styles of the horse are key to this along with the type of race, distance, and most importantly the running styles of the rest of the field. Studying previous traded prices on the timeform betfair site can be a good pointer as to what may happen in future races. Also the timing in which you exit is also of paramount importance. Not being too greedy is also very important.


Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Doesn't time fly?

I can't believe it's been two weeks since my last post! The time has just flown by. I haven't done any trading and I haven't even opened up the Geeks Toy for a look. When your trading day in day out it's very taxing and hard work especially when your working full time, training for a marathon, and have a family. It's been very nice to have a break from it all. There were probably a few reasons why I failed to crack the trading at my last attempt. Top of the list has to be my own discipline and self control. This alone has to be one of the most difficult aspects of trading to crack. Prices either move up, down, or stay the same. There is no secret to trading in my opinion. Plenty of people talk about the requirements needed to be successful. All the same things get a mention, discipline, experience, cutting losses short, letting profits run, etc. I'm not sure I have the right psyche for it. I'm not sure I ever will.

Moving forward I do sort of have a plan. The next few weeks I'm on holiday so I will be spending some quality time with the family while the boys are on their summer break. We plan to do a spot of camping, and a few days out around and about. The marathon training is ramping up and this month I'll have run over 100 miles, with maybe the same next month before the race at the end of September. As much as I enjoy it, it has taken up an enormous amount of time and I think this could be my first and last marathon. We will see.

To the trading part of my plan. Considering I'm going to be very busy for the next few weeks I won't be trading yet. I don't have a trading plan or any idea how I'm going to operate. I have been meaning to buy Caan Berry's trading manual and I will when I get time. I've only heard good things about it. I do have a few skills that I'm going to be sharing. I'll be putting up a few back to lays and lay to backs for a bit of interest as and when I can. If I'd have just stuck to these for the past few months instead of getting involved with guessing and gambling I would have been in significant profit. Hopefully one or two people reading the blog can profit from the information I provide while I get my act together.

That's all for now, I'll be putting up some trades over the next few days.


Tuesday, 6 August 2013

Paper trading

Over the last two days I've been paper trading and putting together a spreadsheet with a solid plan for the pre race trading strategy I had used previously. I'm only confirming what I already knew but it's rebuilding my confidence without risking any money. Some might consider this a complete waste of time but it's something I'm just having to go through to get myself back on track.

The trading did go well today and the imaginary £2,000 was up £50 with 8 out of 9 successful. I'm still sitting on the side lines watching with interest and I'm sure it won't be long before I have the confidence and self belief to get back in the game.

The plan needs to be solid as do I and it is all coming together.